Travel Models & Forecasts

This page provides access to MTC travel demand models, forecasting assumptions, validation reports, and travel and vehicle ownership forecasts.

Travel Forecasts Data Summary: Transportation 2035 Plan for the San Francisco Bay Area (December 2008) This 225-page report includes detailed travel forecasts including summaries of socio-economic inputs, auto ownership, trip generation, trip distribution, mode choice and trip assignment forecasts. Data is reported at the regional, county, and MTC 34 superdistrict-level. The travel forecasts are MTC regional forecasts based on ABAG's Projections 2007 socio-economic data. The report is available in PDF format. A separate page describing the RTP is here. This data summary is also available in hard-copy format from the MTC library (library@mtc.ca.gov) or 510/817.5836. Added: July 27, 2009 .

Travel Forecasts for the San Francisco Bay Area: 2009 Regional Transportation Plan: Vision 2035 Analysis. Data Summary (November 2007) This 172-page report includes detailed travel forecasts including summaries of socio-economic inputs, auto ownership, trip generation, trip distribution, mode choice and trip assignment forecasts. Data is reported at the regional, county, and MTC 34 superdistrict-level. The travel forecasts are MTC regional forecasts based on ABAG's Projections 2007 socio-economic data. The report is available in PDF format and in WORD documents and EXCEL workbooks. A separate page describing this study is here. This data summary is also available in hard-copy format from the MTC library (library@mtc.ca.gov) or 510/817.5836. Added: April 17, 2008.

Vehicle Ownership Forecasts for the San Francisco Bay Area: 1990-2030. Data Summary (November 2005) This 42-page report includes detailed household availability forecasts based on ABAG's Projections 2000 (for 1990 & 1995) and ABAG's Projections 2005 (for 2000-2030). Data is reported at the regional, county, and MTC 34 superdistrict-level. The report is available in PDF format (431 KB) and in WORD documents and EXCEL workbooks(677 KB). This data summary is also available in hard-copy format from the MTC library (library@mtc.ca.gov) or 510/817.5836. Added: December 20, 2005.

Travel Forecasts for the San Francisco Bay Area: 1990-2030. Data Summary (January 2005) This 105-page report includes detailed travel forecasts including summaries of socio-economic inputs, auto ownership, trip generation, trip distribution, mode choice and trip assignment forecasts. Data is reported at the regional, county, and MTC 34 superdistrict-level. The travel forecasts are MTC regional forecasts based on ABAG's Projections 2003 socio-economic data. The report is available in PDF format (502 KB) and in WORD documents and EXCEL workbooks(802 KB). This data summary is also available in hard-copy format from the MTC library (library@mtc.ca.gov) or 510/817.5836. Added: March 17, 2005.

2000 Base Year Validation of Travel Demand Models for the San Francisco Bay Area (BAYCAST-90). Technical Summary. (May 2004) This report includes details on aggregate validation of MTC's travel demand model system with emphasis on daily transit validation, daily and peak period traffic validation, and peak period speed validation. Census 2000 data used in this validation exercise include the standard census summary files, the 5-percent Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), and parts 1 and 2 from the Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP). The report is available in PDF format

(two parts included in the zip archive), and in WORD documents and EXCEL workbooks. This data summary is also available in hard-copy format from the MTC library (library@mtc.ca.gov) or 510/817.5836. Added: June 21, 2004.

Commuter Forecasts for the San Francisco Bay Area: 1990-2030 (Based on ABAG Projections 2003 and Census 2000) (May 2004) The purpose of this data summary is to report "sketch planning" estimates of Bay Area and Northern California commuters for various years. These estimates are based on journey-to-work data from Census 2000; and worker and employment forecasts prepared by the Association of Bay Area Governments from their Projections 2003 series. Data is provided for years 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2030. The report can be downloaded in PDF format. Word and Excel workbooks for this study are available from the following downloadable file: Commuter2003.zip.

County-to-county commuters in the Bay Area, 1960-2030, is available online at this regional indicators DataMart page. Added: May 25, 2004.

Travel Demand Models for the San Francisco Bay Area (BAYCAST-90). Technical Summary. This page is the online full-text version of the (June 1997) final report on the new set of travel demand models for the Bay Area. This paper includes links to tables showing all model coefficients. This technical summary is also available in PDF format . Revisions to the MTC auto ownership model (the "WHHAOX") were completed in early 2000. This new model includes new variables related to the ratio of transit-to-highway accessibility. The detailed "WHHAOX" model specification is available in PDF format.

Travel Forecasts for the San Francisco Bay Area: 1990-2025. Auto Ownership, Trip Generation and Trip Distribution. Data Summary. (May 2001) This report includes MTC's travel demand forecasts, through trip distribution, based on ABAG's Projections 2000 socio-economic forecasts. These are the current set of MTC travel demand forecasts, and were also used in the 2001 Regional Transportation Plan update. This data summary was published May 2001. The WORD documents and EXCEL workbooks are contained in the data summary which can be downloaded

from MTC's web site. (Note: this report is superceded by the report uploaded on March 17, 2005.)

Travel Forecasting Assumptions (2001). The forecasting assumption and travel forecasting methodology notes are contained in a data summary available for downloading (xls, word)

from MTC's web site. This report is also available for downloading in PDF format

. The travel forecasting assumptions includes tables about future auto operating costs, gas prices, parking costs, tolls, vehicle occupancy assumptions and highway peaking factors. Older forecasting assumptions, for the 1998 series of travel forecasts are included in this online version of Travel Forecasting Assumptions '98.

1998 Base Year Validation of Travel Demand Models for the San Francisco Bay Area (BAYCAST-90). Technical Summary. This May 2001 report includes details on aggregate validation of MTC's travel demand model system with emphasis on daily transit validation, daily and peak period traffic validation, and peak period speed validation. The report includes WORD documents and EXCEL workbooks, and can be downloaded (xls, word) from MTC's web site.

Auto Ownership Trends & Forecasts

Two of the older vintage MTC reports on auto ownership trends and forecasts are not available on-line, but are available for downloading from MTC's FTP site. These reports include the original WORD and EXCEL workbook files, and are stored in zipped archives.

"Auto Ownership in the San Francisco Bay Area: 1930-2020" (July 1999) This report includes old, Projections '98-based auto ownership forecasts, and DMV statistics through the end of 1998.
"Vehicle Ownership Forecasts for the San Francisco Bay Area: 1990-2020 (Based on ABAG Projections 2000)" (July 2000) This report includes the newest set of MTC auto ownership forecasts based on Projections 2000. It doesn't include the historical and current DMV statistics.

Both of the above reports are also available from the MTC/ABAG library at (510) 817.5836, or e-mail: library@mtc.ca.gov.

Older, Online (html) MTC Auto Ownership Reports:

Vehicle Ownership Forecasts for the San Francisco Bay Area: 1990-2020 (July 1998) This report summarizes vehicles in household forecasts for the years: 1990, 1998, 2000, 2010 and 2020, based on MTC travel models and ABAG's Projections '98. This report was updated July 2000 (see description above).

Also of interest is the older report: Auto Ownership in the San Francisco Bay Area: 1930-2010. (July 1997) This is an MTC special report on automobile ownership and vehicle availability data in the Bay Area: past, present and future. Data was compiled from various sources, including decennial census, state department of motor vehicle, state department of finance, and MTC and ABAG forecasts. This report was updated July 1999 (see description above).