Historic Research (pre-2000)

Older MTC and Bay Area Transportation Study Commission reports on travel demand models and traveller behavior. All of these reports were scanned and saved in PDF format.

Bay Area Transportation Study Commission (BATSC)

BATSC Study Design (January 1966). The beginnings of Regional Transportation Planning in the San Francisco Bay Area. 57 pages.
Projective Land Use Model (PLUM) (September 1968). Original application of land use allocation models, the Lowry-heritage PLUM models. 137 pages.
BATSC Trip Generation Model Development (November 1969). First generation of Bay Area models. 219 pages.
BATSC Mode Choice Model Development (November 1969). First generation of "diversion curve" style mode choice models. 70 pages.
The Lowry Model Heritage, by William Goldner (June 1970). Goldner was at BATSC to implement PLUM in the 1960s. 30 pages.

Travel Model Development Project (TMDP): 1975-1981: MTCFCAST Model System

Travel Model Development Project: Final Report: Volume I (June 1980). Final report for the landmark disaggregate travel demand model system. 140 pages.
Travel Model Development Project: Detailed Model Descriptions: Volume II (June 1980). Detailed description of models in the landmark disaggregate travel demand model system. 418 pages.
MTC TMDP Annual Report: FY 1980/81 (August 1981). MTC status report on the implementation of MTCFCAST. 84 pages.

Sensitivity & Elasticity Studies

Transit Work Trip Demand Sensitivity Analysis: Santa Clara Valley Corridor Evaluation (SCVCE) Study. MTC Staff Memorandum (September 1978). Some of the earliest applications of STEP and MTCFCAST, for the south bay "Phase I" transit analysis. 13 pages.
Travel Demand Sensitivity to GCAA Models and Input Assumptions. MTC Staff Memorandum (June 1981). Sensitivity analyses conducted for the south bay Guadalupe Corridor Alternatives Analysis (GCAA) project. 22 pages.
Sensitivity of Modal Demand to Input Variables: Year 2000 Travel Forecasts. Technical Summary (January 1988). MTC summary for the Fremont-South Bay / Pittsburg-Antioch Corridor (FSBPAC) Alternatives Analyses. Includes analysis of trip distribution impacts of transit investments. 64 pages.

Sample Enumeration Models: SYNSAM, STEP and ACCESS

ACCESS: Models of Airport Access and Airport Choice for the San Francisco Bay Area, version 1.2, by Greig Harvey (December 1989). Classic sample enumeration model system for predicting airport choice (SFO, OAK, SJC) and access choice. Published by MTC. 154 pages.

Decennial Census

1980 Census: Working Paper #1: Travel and Mobility Characteristics (February 1983). The only MTC working paper produced from the 1980 Census, STF3 sample data, with information at the county and MTC 34 superdistrict level.
1980 Census Data Summaries #1 through #7. To be scanned.
1990 Census: Data Releases and Working Papers. Word and Excel files, to be printed to PDF format.
Census 2000: Data Summaries are currently available on this page.

Bay Area Travel Surveys (BATS)

1981 MTC Travel Survey: Sample Weighting: Working Paper #4 (June 1982). The 1981 Survey was weighted / expanded using 1980 Census counts of households by household size at the county level. 22 pages.
1981 MTC Travel Survey: Place of Residence and Place of Work Locations: Working Paper #6 (October 1982). Survey data was compared and adjusted to 1980 Census data from STF3. 38 pages.
1981 MTC Travel Survey: 1980 Regional Travel Characteristics: Working Paper #8 (June 1983). Comprehensive report on weighted/expanded travel characteristics. Similar in content to BATS1990 Working Paper #4, and BATS2000 Regional Travel Characteristics Summary Report. 170 pages.
1981 MTC Travel Survey: 1980 Regional Travel Characteristics: Working Paper #8, Appendix 6 (October 1983). Superdistrict-level tables in a separate report to WP #8. 174 pages.
Changes in Regional Travel Characteristics in the San Francisco Bay Area: 1960-1981, by Hanna Kollo and Charles Purvis. Paper submitted to the Transportation Research Board for presentation at the January 1984 Annual Meeting (November 1983). A final version of this paper appears in the Transportation Research Record #987. 36 pages.
Other information on MTC household travel surveys is available on this page.

MTCFCAST-80/81 Model System

Home-Based Work Trip Models: Travel Model Update with 1980/81 Data Base: Working Paper #1 (December 1984). MTC in-house updating of the MTCFCAST model system in the 1980s. This report was superceded by Working Paper #2. 63 pages.
Home-Based Work Trip Models: Final Disaggregate Version: Travel Model Update with 1980/81 Data Base: Working Paper #2 (Revised December 1987). Final version of the work trip model updates, conducted in-house by MTC staff in the 1980s. 71 pages.
Non-Work Trip Models: Final Version: Technical Summary: Travel Model Update with 1980/81 Data Base (August 1987). Final set of non-work trip generation and trip distribution models. 22 pages.
Non-Work Trip Mode Choice Models: Final Disaggregate Version: Technical Summary: Travel Model Update with 1980/81 Data Base (February 1988). 10 pages.
Aggregate Validation Results: 1980 Simulation with MTCFCAST-80/81: Technical Summary: Travel Model Update with 1980/81 Data Base (September 1986). Completion of model system, and used in FSB/PAC studies in 1987/88. 19 pages.
Regional Travel Forecasting Model System: MTCFCAST-80/81: Technical Summary: Travel Model Update with 1980/81 Data Base (March 1988). Detailed workings of aggregate model system. 64 pages.
A Disaggregate Work Trip Mode Choice Model for Aggregate Forecasting: (Model TW) Technical Summary: Travel Model Update with 1980/81 Data Base (April 1988). The version of the MTC home-based work mode choice model, without the "breadwinner" variable, and without market segmentation. 9 pages.
Regional Travel Forecasting System for the San Francisco Bay Area, by Hanna Kollo and Charles Purvis. Paper submitted to the Transportation Research Board for presentation at the January 1989 Annual Meeting (July 1988). A final version of this paper appears in the Transportation Research Record #1220. 23 pages.
Application of the MTCFCAST-80/81 Travel Demand Models: Technical Summary (December 1992). The "users guide" to the mainframe model system developed in the 1980s. 23 pages.

Forecasts & Forecasting

Guadalupe Corridor Alternative Analysis: Working Paper #4, Volume I: Travel Model Development and Validation (August 1980). Detailed travel model documentation, methodology, assumptions, and results for the GCAA study, which eventually led to the construction of the San Jose LRT system. 196 pages.