Research on Travel Models & Traveller Behavior

Selected MTC research on travel demand models and traveller behavior

BASSTEGG: Bay Area Simplified Simulation of Travel, Energy and Greenhouse Gases: Sketch Planning Charrette/GIS Models for Predicting Household Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) and Greenhouse Gas (CO2) Emissions [Added 8/25/09]

The MTC BASSTEGG sketch planning model is a work-in-progress to estimate VMT per household, and mobile source carbon dioxide per household, by neighborhood (travel analysis zone) of residence. It's intended for eventual use as a quick response charrette tool for evaluating land use alternatives in a GIS environment. It is a three stage model, using the MTC auto ownership model to predict the number of zone-level households by income level by workers in household level by vehicles in household level; a VMT per household "lookup" table model, using an extra dimension of density; and a simple "CO2 per mile" lookup table based on emission factors derived from California Air Resources Board's EMFAC2007 model.

Initial results of this new sketch planning model were presented at the TRB Transportation, Land Use and Air Quality Conference, July 29, 2009, in Centennial (near Denver), Colorado. The powerpoint presentation (PPT format); the paper (PDF format); and the slides (PDF format) are available by clicking the above links. In addition, work-in-progress spreadsheets and databases are included on MTC's FTP site, here: ftp://ftp.abag.ca.gov/pub/mtc/planning/forecast/BASSTEGG/

Questions about this study can be directed to Mr. Harold Brazil, Associate Transportation Planner/Analyst, at 510-817-5747, or e-mail: hbrazil@mtc.ca.gov.

Characteristics of Rail and Ferry Station Area Residents in the San Francisco Bay Area: Evidence from the 2000 Bay Area Travel Survey

In support of the Metropolitan Transportation Commission's Transit Oriented Development (TOD) policy, this study was undertaken to characterize the demographic and travel characteristics of station area residents — individuals living within close proximity to stops and/or ferry terminals in the region — using an existing Bay Area data set, the 2000 Bay Area Travel Survey (BATS2000).

Residents surveyed in BATS2000 were grouped into six categories based on proximity to a rail/ferry station and population density of the area surrounding the household. The six distance/density categories are:

Residents within 1/2 mile of rail and ferry stops;
Residents between 1/2 mile and 1 mile of rail and ferry stops;
Residents greater than 1 mile from rail and ferry stops, in an urban area;
Residents greater than 1 mile from rail and ferry stops, in a high-suburban area;
Residents greater than 1 mile from rail and ferry stops, in a low-suburban area; and
Residents greater than 1 mile from rail and ferry stops, in a rural area.

This study is published in two volumes: Volume I - in both hard copy and electronic format; and Volume II - in electronic format, only. A paper copy of Voume I can be obtained by contacting the MTC/ABAG library, at: 510-817-5836, or e-mail: library@mtc.ca.gov. Volume II includes Appendices G through R, and is available on the study web page.

This September 2006 report and appendices can be downloaded from this web page: http://www.mtc.ca.gov/planning/smart_growth/stars/

Questions about this study can be directed to David Ory, Principal Transportation Planner/Analyst, at 510-817-5755, or e-mail: dory@mtc.ca.gov.

Activities, Time and Travel: Changes in Women's Travel Time Expenditures: 1990-2000. This December 2004 research paper examines the constancy and change in total travel time expenditures of women and men in the San Francisco Bay Area across the ten-year period between 1990 and 2000. The data sets analyzed are the 1990 and 2000 Bay Area Travel Surveys. Total travel time expenditures for women and men are examined across various socio-demographic and household attributes including age, race/ethnicity, employment status, and household life cycle category. The results show that for both women and men reported daily travel time expenditures increased significantly from 1990 to 2000. Additionally, the results show that for some subgroups of women and men differences in travel time expenditures have equalized from 1990 to 2000 while differences between other subgroups have increased. This paper is available in PDF format

Incorporating the Effects of Smart Growth and Transit Oriented Development in San Francisco Bay Area Travel Demand Models: Current and Future Strategies. This November 2003 research paper explores issues and opportunities for improving the performance of existing and future sets of MTC travel demand models, with respect to the Bay Area's Smart Growth Regional Vision. This paper is available in PDF format

Research Paper: Data and Analysis Methods for Metropolitan-Level Environmental Justice Assessment . This paper was presented at the 2001 annual meeting of the Transportation Research Board (TRB). This paper examines data sources and analytical methods available to metropolitan transportation planners for use in technical activities related to environmental justice and
Title VI discrimination analyses. An older (November 2000) PDF version of this paper includes large map images

. Also available is the powerpoint presentation for this paper.

Research Paper: Improved Speed-Flow Relationships: Application to Transportation Planning Models. This online MTC research paper discusses different speed-flow curves used in MTC traffic assignment research, including the "Akçelik" function. This paper was presented by MTC staff at the Boston Transportation Planning Applications Conference, March 1999.

Research Paper: Peak Spreading Models: Promises and Limitations. This online MTC research paper discusses new sets of time-of-day, or "peak spreading" choice models incorporated in the new MTC model system. This paper was also presented by MTC staff at the Boston Transportation Planning Applications Conference, March 1999. This paper is also available in PDF format .

Research Paper: Incorporating Land Use and Accessibility Variables in Travel Demand Models. This on-line research paper explores the use of land use density variables; transit accessibility; and relative transit-to-highway accessibility in auto ownership choice, trip generation, and mode choice models. This paper was presented by MTC staff at an ASCE specialty conference, May 1998. This paper is also available in PDF format.

Research Paper: Incorporating Work Trip Accessibility in Non-Work Trip Generation Models in the San Francisco Bay Area. This on-line research paper by MTC staff investigates the linkage between work trip duration (congested travel time) and non-work trip frequency. The working hypothesis is that an increase in a household average work trip length, in terms of minutes travelling home-to-work and work-to-home per average weekday, yields lower overall non-work trips made by that household. This paper was presented by MTC staff at the Transportation Research Board annual meeting in January, 1996 (The Blizzard of '96).