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TRANSACTIONS NEWSLETTER ONLINE

February/March 2007

Innovation:
Predict-a-Trip: Past Data Helps Predict Future Traffic

Predict-a-Trip

David L. Cooper

MTC has once again expanded its award-winning 511 traveler information service by adding a new Web-based feature that allows motorists to estimate the length of a trip in terms of minutes and hours well in advance of when they hit the road. Dubbed “Predict-a-Trip,” the new feature builds on the popular 511 Driving Times service by using historical information on freeway traffic speeds and driving times to provide point-to-point forecasts for about 90 percent of the Bay Area freeway network. Predict-a-Trip is available free of charge on the 511 Traffic page at 511.org, but is not available through the 511 phone service.

Introduced by MTC in 2004, 511 Driving Times calculates how long it will take to get from point A to point B given current traffic conditions and incidents. Now with Predict-a-Trip, users can select a Driving Times route on the interactive 511 traffic map, and then choose the day of the week and the time of day they plan to travel. There is also a text-based method of accessing the information.

Predict-a-Trip is particularly helpful for motorists planning trips that are not part of their normal routine. “This is great for people who may be planning dinner at a hot new restaurant, or who are catching a flight out of SFO or maybe going to a job interview,” said Project Manager Benjamin McKeever. “If you’re thinking of moving to a different part of the Bay Area, Predict-a-Trip can also help estimate the length of your morning and evening commutes.”

The Driving Times system taps data from windshield-mounted FasTrak toll tags (which, in addition to facilitating electronic toll collection, do double-duty as traffic probes, with the information scrambled to protect the identity of the driver). The FasTrak data is augmented with data from radar sensors alongside freeways and subpavement loop sensors. Predict-a-Trip accesses historical traffic flows based on the day of the week, the time of day and whether a holiday is involved.
— John Goodwin

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