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TRANSACTIONS NEWSLETTER ONLINE


November/December 2004

Facts and Figures:
Draft Transportation 2030 Plan Envisions a Smarter Way to Grow

In developing the Draft Transportation 2030 Plan, MTC relied on the most advanced computer-based travel forecasting technology to determine how much travel will occur, where people will go and what mode they will use. For the first time, the forecasts are based on a “smart-growth scenario” — a new approach that encourages supportive development around public transit stations and directs new housing and jobs into revitalized central cities and older suburbs.

The total number of daily trips made by Bay Area residents is projected to grow by 35 percent over 2000 levels, to a total of 28.5 million by 2030 (see bar graph below). Whereas daily auto trips are projected to rise by 34 percent by the year 2030, transit trips will increase at a much faster rate, by close to 60 percent. Public transit also is slated to increase its share of the commute market, going from nearly 11 percent of work trips in 2000 to over 13 percent in 2030 (see table below). At the same time, the share of commuters who drive alone will drop by nearly 3 percent.

Work Trips by Mode
Change From 2000 to 2030

Mode Share 2000 2030 Change
Drive Alone 71.0% 68.1% -2.9%
Carpool 13.7% 13.9% 0.2%
Transit 10.9% 13.3% 2.4%
Walk 3.3% 3.3% 0.0%
Bicycle 1.1% 1.4% 0.3%

Source: MTC travel forecasts

The projected rise in public transit’s popularity reflects the assumption that much of the region’s expected population and employment growth will be focused in the urban core and along transit corridors. Smarter land-use patterns also will help keep a lid on residents’ average trip duration, which is predicted to go from 29.4 minutes in the year 2000 to 31.1 minutes in 2030 — a modest 6 percent increase. Not included in this calculation are the commute times of workers who travel long distances to the Bay Area from counties beyond the region’s borders. While the number of these in-commuters will nearly double in size by the year 2030, to 220,000, growth projections in this category would have been even more dramatic had MTC planners simply based their forecasts on current trends rather than on smart-growth assumptions.

Regional Demographic and Transportation Indicators

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