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December 2007 / January 2008

Climate Change Hits Home at Regional “On the Move” Conference

Regional Agencies Join Forces to Create a Greener Future for the Bay Area

A decade or two from now, we may well look back at the “On the Move” conference as the defining moment when the San Francisco Bay Area’s leaders and body politic truly began to confront the challenge of global warming, and the necessity of adopting more climate-friendly growth policies, transportation pricing strategies and personal commute habits. Held in Oakland in late October, the capacity event was historic on several levels, not the least of which was the joint sponsorship by MTC and its sister regional agency, the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG). The gathering signaled a new era of cooperation in which the two regional bodies will integrate their respective efforts to map out a more sustainable future for the Bay Area.

On hand to witness the union were some 700 participants from every corner of the region, including public sector staff, community and environmental advocates, elected officials, business people, and concerned citizens. They came for an update on — and to provide input to — the Transportation 2035 Plan, due for adoption by MTC in early 2009. Attendees also were briefed on the status of “FOCUS,” a parallel interagency effort spearheaded by ABAG to create more sustainable communities*.

In a symbolic gesture, the two agencies’ leaders shared the podium for the morning’s overview of challenges and choices facing the region. MTC Executive Director Steve Heminger traded turns at the microphone with ABAG Executive Director Henry Gardner in a provocative discussion of strategies for substantially reducing congestion and the main culprit behind global warming, carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) from cars and other sources.

Dialing Back the Heat — and the Clock

“The good news is that the Bay Area actually is growing more slowly than the rest of the state,” said Heminger. “And in that sense, we have a more manageable challenge. Our population will increase only by about 25 percent over the next couple of decades. The state of California’s population will grow by over 40 percent.”

Still, that translates to an influx of nearly 2 million new residents with the potential for further erosion of the environment and additional clogging of the region’s already jammed highways. Whereas previous planning efforts on the part of both agencies have settled for slowing the rate of deterioration in various environmental and quality-of-life indicators, this new joint effort aims to actually turn the clock back to a better time.

In initial analyses, the agencies have been working with a goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions to 52,000 tons a day regionwide by 2035, 40 percent below 1990 levels — an “incredibly aggressive target,” in the words of Heminger. As for freeway congestion, the working 2035 target is 21.3 hours of delay per person a year, 20 percent below 2006 levels. Both targets align with ambitious new mandates from the state Legislature and the governor.

Weighing the Options

The conference also was historic in terms of the bold nature of the policy options presented — proposals that in prior eras might have sparked a political backlash by their very mention.

Analysts have been looking at a high-occupancy/toll lane option (in which express buses would share an expanded diamond lane network with carpools and solo drivers willing to pay a premium for a faster ride); a rail/ferry investment option; and operational fixes to speed the flow of traffic. The latter option — which encompasses more freeway ramp metering, carpool lane gap closures, widespread synchronization of traffic signals, and incident management to quickly remove stalls and accidents — proved to be the most cost-effective for reducing travel delays.

But what became clear is that the region can’t build its way out of the global warming dilemma, since even the most “green” infrastructure scenarios barely make a dent in CO2 emissions. MTC and ABAG staff therefore decided to test a set of very aggressive road pricing and denser land use policies. The analysis showed that in most cases, these policies would take the region much closer to reaching the greenhouse gas emission targets than the infrastructure scenarios.

Under one hypothetical scenario, the cost of driving would rise by as much as $1 per mile as the result of a new carbon tax based on miles driven, a congestion fee for driving during peak periods and parking surcharges. Such fees would be packaged with discounts for low-income travelers.

The “what-if” land-use scenario would concentrate the lion’s share of the region’s growth along existing and new bus and rail lines in the core areas of San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose, the idea being to reduce dependence on cars.

Planners and policymakers also are banking on the next wave of technology advances. “We clearly are going to need a completely different fleet of automobiles than the one that we drive today,” Heminger said.

Strong Support for Bold Initiatives

The various proposals were subjected to a reality check via panel discussions by experts and local officials, break-out sessions, and on-the-spot electronic polling.

In the electronic voting, attendees indicated a strong preference for a smaller home and a shorter commute over a larger home with a longer commute. There was also surprisingly strong support for a gasoline surcharge of 25 cents per gallon to combat global warming.

Key messages distilled from “On the Move,” along with a telephone poll (see story), an online survey, stakeholder meetings and person-on-the-street interviews, will feed into a set of initial policies up for adoption by MTC in January 2008. These in turn will set the stage for the development of a Transportation 2035 investment package that will be subjected to technical analyses and more public review in the coming months.

“This is not the end of the conversation. It is the beginning of the conversation,” Gardner told the crowd.
— Brenda Kahn

* In addition to ABAG and MTC, the interagency FOCUS exercise also involves the Bay Area Air Quality Management District and the Bay Conservation and Development Commission, both of which cosponsored the “On the Move” conference.

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Contents

• Climate Change Hits Home at Regional “On the Move” Conference
• In Print: New and Improved The ABCs of MTC and Getting There on Transit
• Facts & Figures: Environment Ranks High in Transportation Poll