Regional Airport Plan

Sensitivity Analysis-
Factors Affecting Airport Demand and Capacity

Introduction

In September 1999 the Regional Airport Planning Committee requested that we evaluate a number of strategies, beyond the major runway options currently being considered by the individual airports, that could affect future demand for Bay Area runway capacity. The main thrust of these "sensitivity tests" is to provide a better sense of the possible importance of selected strategies as part of the region’s overall "tool kit" for addressing the need for additional airport system capacity. Our analysis does not attempt to determine the feasibility of these strategies or to draw conclusions about whether they might be acceptable to the public or airline industry.

The strategies/sensitivity tests can be grouped into seven types:

• Runway Variations at San Francisco and Oakland International Airports.

• Air Service at Satellite Airports

• Use of Moffett Federal Airfield or Travis AFB for Air Cargo

• Diversion of Air Passengers to a future High Speed Rail System

• Rapid Water/Ground Connections between SFO and OAK

• Benefits of new Air Traffic Control Technology

• Airport Access Controls

Approach to the Analysis

Where possible we use a "pivot point" analysis to estimate changes in flights (demand for use of the runways) at each airport. By pivot point, we mean that we "pivot" off of our current forecasts, and estimate changes in aircraft operations at each airport that might occur as a result of a different set of demand assumptions. Figure 1 shows the average daily operations projected for each airport, in other words the basecase for the analysis.

Figure 2 illustrates the correspondence between the sensitivity strategies and the number of aircraft operations affected in different air markets. For example, a new California High Speed Rail system, providing competitive service, could reduce the number of flights operating in the California corridor as well as several small commuter markets.

Where it is not possible to directly estimate changes in flight operations at individual airports, we draw on a more qualitative approach in order to discuss the potential effects of various strategies using available literature and/or knowledge of the industry.

Finally, changes in operations must be linked to the effects on capacity and delay. Some of this linkage will necessarily rely on the results of the airport and airspace capacity analysis which has not yet been completed.

Feasibility of Strategies

Since the approach to the sensitivity analysis focuses on airport demand and capacity, we have not attempted to directly address strategy feasibility. Some of these issues are alluded to under the topic of "Key Considerations", but this discussion is not intended to be exhaustive. Additional questions that would need to be addressed in terms of future implementation include questions like the following:

-Is there an airport sponsor or other authority to implement the strategy?

-Would the strategy make economic sense to an airline or public agency?

-How would passenger convenience be affected?

-Is there an appropriate funding source available (FAA, airlines, airports, transit operators)?

-Could the strategy be implemented in the near term?

-Would noise be increased or shifted from one area to another?

-Is there public support for the proposed strategy?

Figure 1

Figure 2